Pengaruh Fluktuasi Harga Komoditas Pangan Terhadap Inflasi di Provinsi Sumatera Utara tahun (2019-2021)

Abstract

Inflation has a major impact on the local economy. Inflation cann have a positivee or negativee impact, depending on whether inflation is high or not. The purpose of this study was to analyzee the effect of fluctuations in the price of rice, curly red chilies and broilers on inflation in North Sumatra. This type of research uses quantitative methods. Thee type of data used is secondary data. Data analysis method using VAR. VAR analysis was performed using Evaluation 10 software. The results showed that there were seven variables that had a significant effect on inflation at the 5% level in the short term: inflation one month ago, inflation two months ago, inflation three months ago, and prices.  Thee price of rice one month ago, the price of ricee two months ago, thee price of red chili three months ago. In the long run, there are variables that affect inflation. Namely, thee price of rice, the pricee of redd chili, the price of fresh chicken eggs.

KEYWORDS: Inflation, Food prices, VECM