Analisis Pengaruh Utang terhadap Perekonomian dan Kemiskinan di Indonesia Periode 1949-2017

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Dedi Junaedi
Muhammad Rizal Arsyad


Since  independence,  Indonesia   has   experienced  seven   changes   of   national leadership. Starting from  Soekarno, Soeharto, BJ Habibie, Abdurahman Wahid, Megawati, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY), to Joko Widodo. During that time, foreign debt is always present to patch the development budget deficit. Debt is expected to move the wheels of the economy, create growth, create jobs, and alleviate poverty. This study aims  to  analyze  the  effect  of  debt, inflation  and  government regime differences on economic growth and poverty levels in Indonesia, from the Old Order era, the New Order, to the Reform Order. The study used  secondary data obtained from Bank Indonesia,  the National  Development  Planning  Agency (Bappenas), the Central  Bureau of Statistics (BPS), the World Bank, and other reference sources such as books, journals and scientific  papers. The data used  are  the value of  foreign debt, national income (Gross Domestic Product / GDP), population,  number and ratio of  the poor, inflation  rate in the period 1949 - 2017. The results  of  multiple  regression analysis  with  dummy variable (using  Eviews 10 application  program) show the  following  results:  Foreign debt has  correlation with  the national economic condition, in particular the value of Indonesian Gross Domestic Product and the level  of poverty. Debt tends to increase the value of GDP and reduce poverty. In terms of debt governance as a driver of the economy and poverty, the Suharto and Habibie Era tend to be different and better than the Sukarno Era. While the debt management of Era Abdurrahman Wahid, Era Megawati, Era SBY and Era Jokowi no different or no better than Era Sukarno. Although  nationally  can increase GDP and reduce poverty, debt can not improve people's prosperity (read per capita income). Foreign debt even tends to reduce the level of welfare of the people. This applies to all government regimes.




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How to Cite
JunaediD., & ArsyadM. (2018). Analisis Pengaruh Utang terhadap Perekonomian dan Kemiskinan di Indonesia Periode 1949-2017. El-Mal: Jurnal Kajian Ekonomi & Bisnis Islam, 1(1), 1-24.

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